Brexit: two-thirds foresee no negative impact on their finances

Published on The Guardian, by Patrick Collison, June 1, 2016.

Attempts to convince the public they will be worse off if Britain leaves the EU are falling on deaf ears, according to an Ipsos Mori poll that shows two-thirds of the electorate don’t foresee any negative impact on their personal finances from Brexit.  

Even when told that they could be personally worse off by up to £500 per year if Britain left the EU, the majority of leave-leaning voters (60%) still said they would vote to leave.

The study of 4,000 adults reveals voters think there could be a negative economic impact from quitting the EU, but it is unlikely to hurt them personally.

[Graph: All three OECD scenarios see UK GDP growth held back long-term] … //

… After being given a series of escalating scenarios, 13% switch their position to vote leave when told they would be better off by £500 under Brexit. Additionally a sizeable group – four in ten (41%) – become unsure about which way to vote.

“The received wisdom has been that messages around controlling borders and sovereignty are the ones [that] resonate with people who want to leave the EU, but this study shows that the issue of how Brexit could affect individuals financially is more likely than immigration to cause uncertainty in how they would vote,” said Duffy.

(full text, related links).


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