politics for the 99%

Published on The Telegraph.co.uk, by PETER FOSTER, EUROPE EDITOR, May 27, 2016.

They think it’s all over…and to judge by the recent spate of pro-Remain polls on the EU Referendum question, it pretty much is now.

No-one wants to say it out aloud; a ruddy-cheeked David Cameron is still huffing and puffing his way round the factories and malls of Great Britain while Boris spins doughtnuts in his campaign hot-rod, but every knows the game is up.

The ‘poll of polls’ shows an 8-point lead for ‘Remain’; the markets are calm, Sterling is on the up and Nigel Farage talks openly about how the Brexiteers will not accept defeat which – as the bookmakers odds of 1-7 attest – is now a racing certainty.

Well, maybe. But here’s five good reasons why it still might be worth having a punt on Brexit – current odds 4-1, since you ask.

1. The polls aren’t nearly as clear-cut as you might think: … //

… 5. Complacency, sleep-walking to the exit:

It is a paradox of the campaign that the further ahead ‘remain’ get in the polls, the more sanguine the markets appear, the more solid the position of Sterling against the Euro, the less likely that ‘remain’ voters – already relatively tepid towards their cause – are to bother to turn out to vote.

Recall that it was a September 7 2014 Sunday Times poll showing Scots 51-49 in favour of independence that suddenly galvanised Gordon Brown and every other politician in Britain to pile up to Edinburgh to offer blandishments and beg the Scots not to vote ‘out’.

Cameron’s “project fear” suddenly felt real as the pound plunged to a 10-month low and the stocks of Scottish-based firms took a battering in the markets. One Deutsche Bank’s foreign exchange specialist warned that an “out” could lead “a destabilising crisis in the whole British banking system”.

And that’s the problem for “remain”. If the polls are perceived to remain overwhelmingly in their favour, they just won’t get that judicious jolt of panic needed to prevent Britain to sleep-walking to the exit – or a “Brexident”, as the remain camp would call it.

So if the world awakes on June 24 to the shock news that we’ve voted to leave the European Union 50.8 to 49.2 on the back of a 52 per cent turnout, don’t say you weren’t warned.

(full text).

Links:

BREXIT on Spiegel Online International’s special page;

EU leaders are planning a post-Brexit future without the UK, on The Independent.co.uk, by , May 27, 2016: Concerns over ‘contagion’ of anti-EU sentiment is thought to be a key reason why Britain is unlikely to be offered a favourable trade deal in the event of Brexit;

What About Classism? on ZNet (first on Young Christian Workers), by Mark Evans and Fintan Bradshaw, May 27, 2016;

The Desperate Plight of Petro-States, on ZNet (first on TomDispatch), by Michael Klare, May 27, 2016;

Growing Uneasiness: EU preparing for a possible Brexit, on Spiegel Online International, May 27, 2016: SPIEGEL has learned that the foreign ministers of six EU countries have met to discuss the implications of Britain’s possible departure from the European Union. They fear that difficult negotiations over the course of two years could result;

Brexit’s big three arguments – fact-checked, on EurActiv, by Marc Etzld, translated by Samuel Morgan, May 27, 2016;

FINMA links BSI Singapore, BSI Swiss to 1MDB, on The Independent.co.uk, May 26, 2016:
(FINMA: Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority);

What Governments Can Do When Robots Take Our Jobs, on Fortune, by Tom Davenport and Julia Kirby, May 26, 2016;

Réformer le droit du travail , convergence des droits sociaux, vers le bas ou vers le haut? dans France Culture.fr, par Hervé Gardette, le 25 mai 2016;

Suisse – votations du 5 juin: Pro service public vers un résultat très serré,dans 20 minutes, le 25 mai 2016;

Why Paltry Lecturer’s Salary Has Me Churning Out Papers, on Sixth Tone, by Jiemo, May 25, 2016;

Renversement de tendance sur l’initiative en faveur du service public, dans Le Temps.ch, par Lise Bailat, le 25 mai 2016;

De la grande récession au grand embarras, dans Triune de Genève, par Marian Stepczynski, le 25 mai 2016; http://www.tdg.ch/reflexions/grande-recession-grand-embarras/story/22647513

Op-Ed: An African identity we all aspire to, on Daily Maverick, by NKATEKO CHAUKE, May 25, 2016;

Ex-McDonald’s CEO says raising the minimum wage will help robots take jobs, on The Washington Post, by Matt McFarland, May 25, 2016;

Contractors, no need to be in a spin about expenses, on Contraktor.uk, May 25, 2016;

Embedded in Brexit, an Inside Look at the Anti-EU Movement, on Spiegel Online International, May 25, 2016 (Photo Gallery): the Brexit movement tends to not be particularly open with journalists, so I joined them for a few weeks to get an inside look. What I found was a lot of enthusiasm and some cause for concern in the run-up to the June 23 vote;

More Than Tuition: Higher Education and the Social Safety Net, on EdCentral.org, by Kim Dancy, May 24, 2016;

Le vent de nouveauté qui glace la politique espagnole, dans MAZE.fr, par Sarah Francesconi, le 24 mai 2016;

(OFFICIAL)-Sovereign funds seek out yield in illiquid private debt funds, on Mail Online, May 24, 2016;

Demand double for Russian sovereign bonds on offer, on RT, May 24, 2016;

Swiss bank to be shut over Malaysia scandal, on UDSA Today, by Geir Moulson and Jamey Keaten, May 24, 2016;

UK national daily newspaper coverage has strongly favoured pro-Brexit argument, on Press Gazette, by Dominic Ponsford, May 23, 2016;

Economists for Brexit dismiss trade fears, on Financial Times, by Emily Cadman, April 28, 2016: Group says UK should rely on WTO rules rather than new agreements;

The European Debt Crisis Visualized, 19.27 min, uploaded by Alberta Cannon, April 9, 2015;

… and this:

• Crooked Forest (Polish: Krzywy Las), is a grove of oddly-shaped pine trees located outside Nowe Czarnowo, West Pomerania, Poland. This grove of approximately 400 pines was planted around 1930, when its location was still within the German province of Pomerania. It is generally believed that some form of human tool or technique was used to make the trees grow this way, but the method and motive are not currently known.[1] It has been speculated that the trees may have been deformed to create naturally curved timber for use in furniture or boat building [2] Others surmise that a snowstorm could have knocked the trees like this, but to date nobody knows what really happened to these pine trees …; also in other languages like Polski; Deutsch; Az?rbaycanca; and more …;